Experts split over impact of US pullout from Afghanistan on N. Korea issue

2024-10-23 18:28:21      点击：489

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman speaks on the situation in Afghanistan at the State Department in Washington, D.C., Wednesday. AP-Yonhap

Remains to be seen if Sung Kim will offer enticements to Pyongyang

By Kang Seung-woo

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is drawing mixed responses here, on speculation that it could leave room for Washington to concentrate efforts on the North Korean nuclear issue that seems to have been put on the back burner under the new Joe Biden administration.

Despite completing its policy review of Pyongyang in April, the Biden administration has been less productive to engage the Kim Jong-un regime, unlike Biden's predecessor who held summits with the North's leader on three occasions.

"The Biden administration has clearly shown its willingness to work with allies, including South Korea. And the Moon Jae-in government has successfully helped to put North Korea on the Biden administration's radar, among others, by supporting Washington's China policy," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at King's College London.

"So I think that the Biden administration not only has more room to focus on North Korea now, but Seoul can actually help to continue to draw Washington's attention to this issue."

However, Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corp., said it was too soon to foretell due to problems ensuing from the withdrawal.

"As of now, the U.S.'s pullout from Afghanistan doesn't appear to have resolved the longstanding security and political challenges, so the expectation that this would free up more time and space for Washington to concentrate on other issues seems premature," Kim said.

"There will be a lot of other consequential issues and challenges to deal with, so if anything, I think the U.S. will need to give more attention to settling the Afghanistan issue, like it or not."

In the wake of the U.S. pullout, Biden has been under fire for the decision, leaving South Korea and other allies anxious about whether they can trust the United States. Pacheco Pardo said the South Korean government needs to step up efforts to ease the concerns.

"The sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan will embolden officials and experts in South Korea who think that Seoul should follow its own policy, including towards North Korea," he said.

"So even though I don't expect the Moon administration to stop coordination with the U.S. when it comes to Pyongyang, it will have to address the concerns of those who think that Washington isn't a reliable partner and that it only focuses on its own interests."

Marines assigned to the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit await a flight to Kabul, Afghanistan, at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Tuesday. AP-Yonhap

Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, is expected to arrive in Seoul, Saturday, for a four-day visit, his second visit in two months. This is fueling speculation that the U.S. may offer something to incentivize North Korea to take further steps toward denuclearization.

Ever since the Hanoi summit between then U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un ended without a deal in February 2019, the nuclear negotiations have made little progress.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. had already let Pyongyang know some of its possible enticements, perhaps also via Seoul given the exchanges between the two Koreas in recent weeks and months," Pacheco Pardo said.

"I think that the Biden administration has shown that it is serious about addressing the North Korean nuclear issue, even if it isn't a top priority. And this would include specifying possible enticements to North Korea."

However, Soo Kim said that to jumpstart nuclear talks at this point may not be in the U.S.'s best interests, although the North Korean nuclear issue remains a key challenge for the administration.

"The administration has probably learned lessons from the Trump administration's handling of the nuclear negotiations; the question is, do they want to repeat the same mistakes ― especially in light of recent developments in Afghanistan? And how much bandwidth does Washington have at this point to focus on another long-term challenge?" she said.